Forecasted Market Share

According to studies by Kalyanaram et. al., Urban et. al, and Urban et. al., forecasted market share for consumer packaged goods and prescription anti-ulcer drugs divided by the first entrant’s market share roughly equals one divided by the square root of the order of market entry.

In other words, those who aren’t first to the market have significantly less market share than the first entrant into the market/industry.

The lesson to be learned is that being first counts for a lot.

See Hanssens, D., ed. (2009). Empirical Generalizations About Marketing Impact, Marketing Science Institute. Cambridge, Mass.